Higher education hit an already mounting inflection point in 2025. Between families questioning high tuition, employers demanding job-ready talent, higher ed institutions facing economic pressure, and rising unemployment among recent graduates, there is increasing pressure on higher education to demonstrate value.
In 2026, the value of a college degree will hinge on how well institutions prepare students for a labor market transformed by AI, automation, and economic volatility. Universities will need to help students build transferable abilities, validate those abilities in ways employers can trust, and create clear pathways into real jobs. Here are seven trends I'm keeping my eye on as we watch this shift unfold in the year ahead:
1. A significant number of colleges, especially statewide university systems, will overhaul their strategic plans, with career placement as the core KPI
The pressure on institutions to demonstrate real outcomes has reached a tipping point. Employers want clearer signals of what graduates can actually do, and students are no longer satisfied with earning a degree alone; they want to know exactly how their education will translate into a job. Because of this, the new metric of value for higher education will be the ability to connect students’ skills, knowledge, and experiences to the real-time demands of the labor market.
The long-standing data gap between higher education and industry is finally closing. New efforts like Gainful Employment and the Carnegie SAEC are pushing institutions to report real outcomes, such as job placement, earnings, and internships, forcing colleges to rethink how they track and use career data. Strada’s 2025 State Opportunity Index shows what this shift looks like in practice, with Tennessee and Virginia emerging as leaders: Virginia is recognized for publishing transparent ROI data on state credentials, and Tennessee links student value to state value by tying affordability and workforce alignment to economic impact, ensuring low-income learners access programs with both strong affordability and strong career pathways.
On the strategic planning front, we see leaders like California State University (CSU) who launched the CSU Promise, guaranteeing every student a first career job or graduate-school placement, a major shift from focusing on graduation rates to jobs as the key success metric. Brandeis University is also reimagining liberal arts with career readiness at its core, blending traditional disciplines with professional competencies and prioritizing internships, apprenticeships, and applied learning across all four years.
2. For the first time in years, elite institutions are poised to significantly increase their student pool
2026 will be the year we see elite institutions expand their student pool by a significant margin, a sharp reversal after decades of tightening selectivity. Ivy League acceptance rates plunged from 8.9% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2025, down from 10–20% in the early 2000s and 20–30% in the 1980s. Ivy Plus schools are even more exclusive: MIT’s Class of 2029 admitted 4.52%, Duke 4.8%, and Caltech ~2.5%.
Now, with international enrollment declines, legacy restrictions, and reduced research funding, campuses may widen their aperture. Columbia is weighing a 20% class expansion, an early signal of a shift that could ripple across pricing, prestige, and admissions, with first signs in 2026 and more visible growth by 2027.
3. More college transcripts will capture and validate competencies and evidence, not just grades
Traditional transcripts offer little beyond GPA verification. To prepare students for the future of work, college transcripts will need to increasingly showcase skills and real-world experience. In 2026 and beyond, expect more institutions to adopt new models like competency-based transcripts and Comprehensive Learner Records (CLRs). While Western Governors and Southern New Hampshire have long operated on a fully competency-based philosophy, Brandeis University is now developing a “second transcript” to capture competencies. Texas A&M Commerce, University of Maryland Global Campus, and eight California Community Colleges have also announced the launch of CLRs and other competency-based transcript initiatives. The University of Michigan’s Center for Academic Innovation has piloted a skills transcript initiative that integrates employer-facing competencies into student records.
This shift isn’t confined to higher education. With more than 300 colleges accepting the Mastery Transcript Consortium’s competency-based transcript, broad momentum is growing.
The traditional transcript is long outdated and faces a serious threat. These innovations are set to gain even more traction in the coming year.
4. With a market jam-packed with all kinds of credentials, and a wave of new ones to come, there will be a “flight to quality” – and that quality is industry recognition
With a market flooded with credentials, short courses and certifications, expect a flight to quality, defined by industry recognition. While certain secondary or non-degree credentials can boost hiring chances and starting pay, most fail to deliver real value beyond a LinkedIn badge. The Burning Glass Institute’s Credential Value Index shows only 13% of credentials lead to meaningful wage gains, leaving 87% as noise. In the coming years, new tools and algorithms will help learners choose tailored credentials that will help advance careers. The reset is coming, and quality will matter more than quantity.
5. Work-based learning and micro-internships will become an increasing part of every student’s college experience, in part to supplement inadequate supply of internships
Northeastern University showed long ago that structured work experience drives strong career outcomes. Micro-internship platforms like Riipen and Parker Dewey now help students complete real industry projects as part of their coursework, giving them employer-designed experience that build skills and networks without requiring a full-term internship. Canada’s Innovative Work-Integrated Learning program (I-WIL) demonstrates what this looks like when supported at scale, offering each student access to paid internships across industries.
Why hasn’t this become mainstream in the U.S.? Most universities lack the infrastructure to match students with the right opportunities and translate those experiences into measurable outcomes, government programs haven’t yet emerged at scale, and internship and apprenticeship scale are limited.
However, micro-internships are beginning to scale, state-based programs are focused more directly on this need, and higher education institutions are ramping up their focus. And the infrastructure to support this is finally beginning to take shape. ETS’s Futurenav, a program that I am leading, acts as a career GPS, helping each student map their skills and interests to real jobs and internships, and take clear steps toward their goals. It also enables institutions to identify relevant work‑based experiences for each student, validate their skills, and create the supply‑and‑demand connections that accelerate graduates into “day‑one‑ready” roles.
6. Universities will become career launchpads, expanding into hiring and onboarding
Consulting giant McKinsey & Company plans to boost entry-level hiring by 12% in 2026. Fresh graduates – AI-native, cost-effective, and easier to assess – are becoming more attractive to employers. At the same time, companies are moving away from generic job boards, favoring platforms that match candidates to specific skills. And that’s where universities hold the key: as corporate training budgets shrink, businesses will increasingly offload onboarding to higher education. In 2026 and beyond, colleges will be expected to deliver “day-one ready” talent. While critics may argue that employers should be doing this last mile training, as opposed to colleges, this opens up new avenues for institutions to garner corporate dollars and work with integrators to build scalable solutions for this last mile.
7. Early-career success will take on a new meaning in 2026
Entry-level job opportunities are shrinking as automation accelerates: The World Economic Forum reports that employers expect nearly half of all entry-level tasks in some roles to be automated by 2027, with early-career positions in AI-exposed fields like software development and customer service among the most affected. Entry-level job postings in the U.S. have fallen roughly 35% since 2023. Early-career hiring has declined sharply in AI-exposed fields such as software engineering and customer service, dropping by about 13% over the same period, according to the Burning Glass Institute. Looking ahead, research - such as a study by Goldman Sachs - suggests that in some sectors as many as 50% of entry-level roles could be automated by 2027.
The jobs that remain demand far more than technical knowledge. Employers expect early-career talent to pair tech fluency with judgment, teamwork, and adaptability. Human skills like communication, empathy, and ethical decision-making are critical in AI-enabled environments where employees must interpret insights, resolve conflict, and build trust. As lower-skill roles disappear, skill validation and hands-on experience, such as internships, project-based work, and micro-apprenticeships, are becoming essential components of education.
Conclusion
Higher education is at a turning point and 2026 will continue testing its ability to prepare students for a labor market reshaped by AI, automation, and uncertainty. Success means building transferable skills, validating them in ways employers trust, and connecting learners to real opportunities. At ETS, we’re driving this shift with Futurenav Compass, strong partnerships, and research that empowers students to move confidently from classroom to career—and we plan to accelerate this work in 2026.
Happy New Year!